Dating in recovery
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The NBER does not define a recession in terms of two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP.
Identifying the date of the trough involved weighing the behavior of various indicators of economic activity.
The estimates of real GDP and GDI issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U. Department of Commerce are only available quarterly.
The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007.
First, the strong growth of quarterly real GDP and real GDI in the fourth quarter was inconsistent with designating any month in the fourth quarter as the trough month.CAMBRIDGE September 20, 2010 - The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion.At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II.There is no fixed rule about what weights the committee assigns to the various indicators, or about what other measures contribute information to the process.